Ammo Prices in 2026: What's Happening and When to Buy
The Short Answer
Ammo prices are going up in April 2026. Two forces are converging: manufacturer price increases (2–12% from Federal/CCI/Speer/Remington effective April 1) and import tariffs (10–37% on ammo from Brazil, Serbia, Bosnia, South Korea, and Europe). If you've been waiting to buy, the window is closing. Prices are unlikely to drop before summer 2026.
The April 2026 Price Increases
Winchester / Olin
Implemented a 3–8% increase on all ammunition effective January 1, 2026. CEO Kenneth Lane cited tariffs and rising metal costs. Winchester is now reviewing pricing quarterly rather than annually — a sign they expect continued upward pressure.
The Kinetic Group (Federal, CCI, Speer, Remington, Blazer, Fiocchi, B&P, HEVI-Shot)
Two rounds of increases: 5–12% effective October 1, 2025, plus an additional 2–10% effective April 1, 2026. The Kinetic Group controls the largest portfolio of ammunition brands in the United States. When they raise prices, it moves the entire market.
Raw material drivers: copper is near multi-year highs at $10,000–$12,000 per metric ton. Lead, zinc, antimony, and propellant costs are all elevated. Pricing beyond July 1, 2026 remains uncertain.
Import Tariffs by Country
Tariffs signed in April 2025 added a new cost layer on top of manufacturer increases:
| Country | Tariff Rate | Key Brands Affected | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia | 37% | PPU / Prvi Partizan | Major impact on 7.62x39, .308, pistol calibers |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 36% | Igman | Budget brass-case imports hit hard |
| South Korea | 25% | PMC (Poongsan) | Popular budget brass brand |
| European Union | 20% | Sellier & Bellot, Norma, Fiocchi (Italian), Lapua, Geco | Broad impact on premium imports |
| Israel | 17% | IMI | Moderate impact |
| Brazil | 10% | Magtech / CBC | Adds ~$20 per 1,000 rds of 9mm |
| Turkey | 10% | ZSR, Turan, Sterling | Budget imports affected |
| Mexico | 0% (USMCA exempt) | Aguila | Significant competitive advantage |
Domestic Manufacturing Response
CBC Global Ammunition (parent of Magtech and Sellier & Bellot) announced a $300 million investment to build a new manufacturing facility in Oklahoma, expected to produce centerfire cartridges domestically. This is a direct response to tariffs — producing in the U.S. eliminates the import duty. The facility isn't online yet, but it signals the industry's direction.
Current Prices by Caliber (March 2026)
| Caliber | Best Deal CPR | Average Market CPR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9mm FMJ | $0.19–$0.24 | $0.25–$0.35 | ↑ Rising |
| 5.56/.223 FMJ | $0.38–$0.44 | $0.48–$0.50 | ↑ Rising |
| .45 ACP FMJ | $0.32–$0.38 | $0.38–$0.50 | ↑ Mild |
| .22 LR | $0.04–$0.09 | $0.06–$0.11 | → Stable (near pre-COVID) |
| .308 Winchester | $0.55–$0.65 | $0.65–$0.80 | ↑ Rising |
| 7.62x39 | $0.30–$0.40 | $0.40–$0.50 | ↑↑ Rising fast |
| .300 Blackout | $0.60–$0.89 | $0.89–$1.30 | ↑ Rising |
| 6.5 Creedmoor | $0.80–$1.00 | $1.00–$1.50 | ↑ Rising |
| .380 ACP | $0.25–$0.35 | $0.35–$0.45 | → Stable |
| .40 S&W | $0.28–$0.38 | $0.38–$0.50 | ↓ Declining demand helps |
| 12ga Target | $0.35–$0.45 | $0.45–$0.57 | ↑ Mild |
| 12ga Buckshot | $0.80–$1.13 | $1.00–$1.50 | ↑ Rising |
Should You Buy Now or Wait?
The caliber to buy first: 7.62x39. Russian steel-case supply is finite and dwindling. Brass alternatives from Serbia and Bosnia face crushing 36–37% tariffs. This is the one caliber where waiting genuinely costs you money every month.
The caliber you can wait on: .22 LR. Prices are near pre-COVID levels, domestic production is robust, and .22 LR isn't meaningfully impacted by the current tariffs.
The Bottom Line
Ammo prices in 2026 are going up, not down. Two independent forces — manufacturer increases and import tariffs — are pushing prices higher simultaneously. The window to buy at current prices closes on April 1 when the Kinetic Group's latest increase takes effect. This isn't 2020-style panic buying — supply is available. Prices are just higher and getting higher.
Smart moves right now: Stock up on 7.62x39 and .300 Blackout (most tariff-impacted). Buy 9mm and 5.56 in case quantities if you're below your comfort level. Watch Aguila (tariff-exempt Mexican manufacturer) for the best deals. And bookmark our Good Price Per Round guide to know whether a deal is actually a deal.
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